At present, the main factor affecting steel pipe market is still the supply and demand situation of rectangular hollow section. With the trade war, the market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals.Among them, the focus of attention is still the change of market inventory. Although the overall increment is limited, the accumulative storehouse speed of the two storehouses is accelerated. Part of the increase of the two storehouses is individual storage in winter, but it is mainly caused by weak demand, and the market's expectation of accumulative storehouse after the festival is more obvious.
And the environmental production limit is expected last week after the release of concentrated good has been gradually digested by the market.In the case of high profits, steel pipe suppliers are still spare no effort in the production. Production limit is becoming strict in Tangshan area and the rate of blast furnace utilization has decreased, but there are still blast furnace production phenomenon of steel mills , some steel mills are preparing to resume production. According to the NDRC's website, in November, China's crude steel output reached 77.62 million tons, up 10.8 percent year-on-year, up 8.6 percentage points.Steel production rose 11.3 per cent, compared with a 2.9 per cent drop in the same period last year. From January to November, China's crude steel output was 857.37 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% and a year-on-year growth rate of 1 percentage point.Steel output was 1012.92 million tons, up 8.3 percent or 7.2 percent. That will continue in the New Year, unless profits collapse, forcing mills to cut production of structural steel pipe.
In terms of demand, at present, the north has entered the winter break stage, and the construction in other places is obviously affected. Although the demand resilience exists, it is generally weak, which will become more and more obvious.Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the market does not have the conditions for a big market. From the analysis of winter storage policy, up to now, some steel mills such as hegang, yaxin have started to issue winter storage policy, and some regions still think the current winter storage policy is too high.But the loan is also facing cost and threshold constraints, hollow section manufacturers at the end of the financial pressure is very tight.In the case of two consecutive years of losses in winter storage, businesses dare not rush to carry out winter storage operation, and another factor is the expected global economic downturn next year. Unless there is a significant pullback in January or a significant improvement in market expectations, this trend is likely to continue.
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